Thinkholes: How Predictability Undermines Competitive Advantage
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Chas Martin


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Think about the holes we dig ourselves into with the assumptions we make every day. In a rush to make timely decisions, meet inflexible deadlines, or conserve our limited time, we default to reliable decision-making patterns. The result is a failure to differentiate ourselves, our projects or our organizations. Our decisions follow a very calculated and very predictable course of action.

The implications are far more serious than you may think. Which animal has the better chance of survival, the one that always follows the same path, or the one whose route cannot be easily tracked?

In his book, “A Whole New Mind,” author Dan Pink explains:
The last few decades have belonged to a certain kind of person with a certain kind of mind – computer programmers who could crank code, lawyers who could craft contracts, MBAs who could crunch numbers. But the keys to the kingdom are changing hands. The future belongs to a very different kind of person with a very different kind of mind – creators and empathizers, pattern recognizers and meaning makers. These people – artists, inventors, designers, storytellers, caregivers, consolers, big picture thinkers – will now reap society’s richest rewards and share its greatest  joys.

His logic is straightforward. IF what you do has no creative value added, your function can be outsourced or simulated by predictive modeling software. You can be replaced. In short, if you aren’t innovating new alternatives or creating genuinely unique outcomes, your function can be achieved cheaper, faster – and probably more consistently.

If you follow the path of least resistance with your choices and decisions, your perspective has limited range. You miss opportunities to differentiate yourself and your brand. You commoditize your value as you think into a deeper hole.
The demands of efficiency encourage us to leap to conclusions. We are experts at what we do.
 
We know what works. So, we accept the first workable solution as THE solution. Check off the metric. Proceed to the next task.
If you’re crossing the street, automatic thinking patterns are very useful. You don’t think at a red light. But, dozens of other decision points slip past you every day – opportunities that could result in radically different outcomes. Differentiation creates the unexpected solution. But to achieve that, you have to recognize and climb out of your habitual thinkholes.

It stuns me that innovative problem solving is not part of every organization’s training. To envision and articulate different options for overcoming challenges is at the core of competitive advantage. People new to a position are usually filled with fresh ideas to initiate change. But, leadership is generally averse to risk, focusing on quarterly objectives and shareholder expectations. This pattern rewards short term, inside-the-box thinking. And, by default, it undermines the ability to create long term value.

While you are focusing on incremental improvement, your competitors exploit your predictable actions, redefine their own value propositions and challenge your whole business model.

Frans Johansson, in his book “The Medici Effect,” described how assumptions can limit potential. Organizations hire experts. Experts know the industry. They assume what is probable or not. The range is a few degrees in either direction. Johansson calls this directional thinking. It is calculated, controlled and predictable. In contrast, he introduces intersectional thinking. By intentionally crossing paths with experts from other fields, unexpected connections and unlikely combinations of knowledge and experience are created. The “impossible” becomes the breakthrough. Possibilities expand from a few degrees to a whole new plane with 360 degree potential.

Breakthroughs are disruptive. Until you create the blue ocean in which you have dominant market position, you will compete for shrinking margins and limited market share. “Blue Ocean Strategy,” by Kim and Mauborgne, described how to create uncontested market space that makes the competition irrelevant.

Innovation is not generally considered a risk reduction strategy. In reality, we actually increase risk by following the predictable path. Assumptions are safer than questions. But, they are short sighted. Creativity requires a broader range of reference points. It’s far easier, cheaper and wiser to alter your course if you can see the far horizon. If your decisions are not analyzed within a larger context, your assumptions will bury your options. You will flounder in shark infested waters.

If I know how you see your situation, I also know with some degree of certainty, what you believe your options to be. Your actions can be predicted from those options.

It’s neither possible nor practical to expel all assumptions. But, suspending their grip increases your possible alternatives and thwarts predictability. In a market where the competition is fierce and product or service offerings basically the same, customers respond to differentiation. It is easier to sell obvious benefits than to build marketing campaigns around incremental differences.

Whirlpool redefines laundry and customer preference

When the Duet washer and dryer were introduced in 2001, Whirlpool took the industry by surprise. One third of washer/dryer consumers had no brand preference when they entered a retail location. The appliance store was a sea of white. Everything looked and performed basically the same. Brands and models were essentially interchangeable. It was a commodity market focused on price.

Whirlpool’s leadership looked outside the organization to find thinkers who were not bound by the assumptions and could provide new tools for discovery, synthesis and realization. New opportunities surfaced when the focus on washer and dryer was reframed as the “fabric care process.”

Innovations included storage drawers on the bottom which raised the front loading doors to a comfortable height. Integrated cabinetry holds the iron, a built-in ironing board and a fabric steamer. Finally, they added a new palette of exciting colors. Reframing the focus created a new understanding of customer need and market opportunity.

Whirlpool’s journey to differentiate itself succeeded in creating new market space where they could charge $2000 for a matched set. Chuck Jones, Whirlpool’s VP of Global Consumer Design, claims the Duet changed the consumer’s perceived value of the laundry process.
By creating radically different form, features and functionality, a new paradigm was created which increased washer/dryer combined purchases from 15% to 96%.

Whirlpool took a risk, but a calculated one. Each new product developed requires a value prop and documentation of a compelling customer need. Further considerations explore the migration path or product line potential. One-offs or short range product lines generally do not justify the investment. If the initial thinking is true to the brand while diverging from industry assumptions, it has potential as a breakthrough.

Whirlpool demonstrates one large corporation’s approach to innovation. But, the same tactics are applicable to any organization: shift focus, challenge assumptions, explore beyond the obvious to create new market space.

To redefine the situation is to embrace a different way of thinking. Instead of seeing our options as black, white or a predictable shade of gray, we have to recognize that the reds, greens and blues are the options that create genuine competitive advantage through differentiation.

© 2008 Chas Martin, InnovativEye

Article originally appeared on Chas Martin, Creative Problem Solving, Innovation Strategies (http://www.innovativeye.com/).
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