The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself!

Summary from the Front End of Innovation Confernce in Boston, May 2007.

Our home planet is just the beginning. During our lifetime, we will see mankind move off the planet. That was the opening remark from Peter Diamandis, M.D., Founder, Chairman and CEO of the X Prize Foundation.

Diamandis is passionate about space: space travel, space resources, space colonization, and space craft. Space has been the common thread that weaves all of his major accomplishments to date. He began his presentation with a photo of one small dark area of the universe. Within one small region, there are 100 billion galaxies. With that much out there, how can we presume to know anything? There is so much more to know.

He cited three major reasons why we explore space. First is fear. When In the 60s, the U.S. feared dominance from space by a foreign power. Today, it’s more as a defense against killer asteroids. Second is curiosity. The search for life or understanding is a strong driver. Third is the quest for wealth. This was the primary reason Europe colonized many other regions of the globe. Global demand for metal resources is outpacing supply. Diamandis outlined the financial potential of mining asteroids for iron, iridium, platinum, osmium or palladium. A single asteroid could yield $22 trillion in metal. Many of the more productive earthbound mining areas today are impact sites from interplanetary resources.

In 2001, the X Foundation awarded the $10 million Ansari X Prize to the first non-government organization to launch a reusable manned spacecraft into space twice within a two week period. Diamandis is now focused on building the X PRIZE Foundation into a world-class prize institute whose mission is to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity. 

His innovative new ventures include Zero G, a sub-orbital tourist flight which simulates the zero gravity environment of space by taking passengers to 30,000’ and then plunging 30 degrees earthward to leave them totally weightless for several minutes. A recent passenger was Stephen Hawking, the astrophysicist whose life has been dedicated to defining the universe while confined to a wheelchair. Hawking was enthusiastic about his adventure. His own opinion on the need to explore space is summed up as “…the human race doesn’t have a future if it doesn’t go into space.”

Diamandis insists that we as a society have become risk averse. Shortly after Alan Shepard made the first U.S. sub-orbital flight, President Kennedy declared that we would go to the moon. That was a huge risk. We are no longer willing to take that level of risk.
One of the greatest obstacles to space exploration is getting into space. By traditional means, a single space mission requires $100 to $500 million, or about $22,000 per minute. He believes that cost could and should be $100. The opportunity to make that possible lies in mass markets – self-loading carbon units – people traffic.

NASA’s commercial launches are only 10-15 per year. But, if the demand was higher, or if the entertainment or tourism value could be developed, it would reduce cost to be compatible with other transportation systems.

Competition, as evidenced by the X Prize, is his solution. Charles Lindbergh’s historic trans-Atlantic flight was in response to a $25,000 prize awarded by Frenchman, Raymond Orteig. The result was far greater than proof that it could be done. Lindbergh’s grandson, Erik Lindberg said that this historic flight elevated flyers from risk takers and barnstormers, into passengers. Within 18 months of the crossing, passenger traffic increased 30 times, the number of aircraft increased 4 times, and aviation stocks soar to new heights.

The prize inspired a paradigm shift. It changed what we thought was possible. “If you believe it is not possible, then it isn’t – for you.” Diamandis challenged the audience to think differently. Lingberg’s accomplishment in response to a $25,000 challenge was a direct influence on the X Prize. The $10 million prize attracted 26 teams from 7 nations, which spent over $100 million to compete. Burt Rutan’s team won with their innovative solution, SpaceShipOne, which now hangs in the Smithsonian adjacent the Spirit of St. Louis.

NASA is imitating and integrating some of the breakthroughs that came from that competition. Each team offered unique solutions - ocean launches, horizontal take off and landing, helicopter-based designs and more.

Burt Rutan said that he had never been as creative as he was while competing for this prize. And, the public loved the adventure as well. The story of the winning solution made the front pages of 396 newspapers worldwide. AOL’s web page broke their own record for most views.
The next phase of this contest-based challenge is defined by the X Prize mission statement: “To bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity.” The next targets include:

• The Genome X Prize – a challenge to sequence 100 human genomes within 10 days. By standard means, this is estimated to take 50 years. He is looking to shorten that timeline considerably.
• Cancer X Prize – no details given, but the stakes and odds are presumably similar.
• The Energy X Prize – to create a low-carbon emission 100 MPG car.

Diamandis sees additional opportunities (adventures) in sub-orbital rocket racing, a potentially huge industry economic model which will be a mash up of NASCAR and rocket propelled hot rod planes with a web-based, X-Box user participation angle. It’s a grand idea with working prototypes ready to blast off to fly a short course. One of the initial pilots to fly the X Racer will be Erik Lindbergh.

Diamandis is not afraid of risk. It’s part of the price for breakthroughs. It’s obviously what fuels his passion. The original response to the X Prize overwhelmed him with the diversity, cross disciplinary, cross cultural solutions. He is leveraging that paradigm to challenge people globally to think beyond barriers, beyond assumptions, beyond tradition and beyond risk.

But the challenges are not limited to his organization. In response to a question from the audience, he cited an alternate corporate model – an internally funded and managed X Prize to inspire and integrate breakthrough ideas within organizations. Breakthroughs create excitement and unorthodox ideas. That’s what will make the future better than the present.

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