The Acceleration of Technology in the 21st Century: The Impact on Business, the Economy and Society

Summary from the Front End of Innovation Confernce in Boston, May 2008.

Our thinking process is linear, not exponential. That makes it difficult for most people to understand the billion-fold increases in technology in the past 25 years. Today, a Blackberry has comparable computing power of a computer that would have filled a room 25 years ago. That incredible rate of innovation is not limited to computing technology, but is also occurring in biotech.

There are 50 experiments in progress which can place blood cell-sized devices into the bodies of experimental animals. These devices detect pathogens and release appropriate drugs to treat them. Today, humans implanted with pea-sized devices, manage the effects of Parkinson’s Disease. We have 23,000 software programs inside our bodies. These genes can be and are being reprogrammed to respond to heath management. Fat insulin receptor genes operate on the pre-historic principal that calories should be stored because the next hunt may not provide enough food. These can be reprogrammed with ability for weight control.

New methods for gene therapy permit researchers to extract, alter, cultivate and reintroduce genes into the body which can cure pulmonary hypertension. In effect, we have the ability to treat biology as technology.

The mind cannot fathom the exponential acceleration of technology. Graphing multiple examples of exponential change, Kurzweil demonstrated how a doubling of measurement ramps slowly at first and within 7 doublings, the line on the graph goes exactly vertical. Referencing the improvements in solar energy production which will double in 2 years, he predicted that within 20 years solar energy could provide 100% of the U.S. energy need while covering only 1% of the earth’s surface.

This rapid change is difficult to comprehend. Kurzweil continued with references to the growth of the internet and several other convincing examples. Only a few years ago, there was no search function on the internet. The potential disruptive power of the laptop has the ability to jumpstart 3rd world economies with access to a global economy. Every 6 months the technology driving mobile phones is reinvented with more capability than before.

In 2002, he had created a device capable of converting text to voice. It was the size of a washing machine. His prediction was that it could be reduced to a handheld device by 2008. He then pulled a device from his pocket, photographed a page of text and played back the message for the audience. It will be available in six languages next week and will soon be integrated into a Blackberry. Benefits for the blind are obvious. Additional benefits will be reaped by those with dyslexia who will comprehend faster by seeing and hearing the text at the same time.

Predicting technology is not difficult. It’s a mathematical problem to project the exponential stages. The computing transformation from punch cards to vacuum tubes to transistors to printed circuits has created conductors only few molecules thick. By 2029, we will see 3-dimensional molecular computing, like the brain’s own processes. At that point, computers will disappear and processing will be integrated into fabrics and body tissues extending our intelligence. Re-engineering the body will permit one to run for hours without running out of breath, or to sit at the bottom of a pool for hours without need for air.

Kurzweil is certainly a provocative speaker. In his new book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, he pushes buttons with a fantastic view of a potential future. Whether you agree or disagree with his predictions, his proof of the transformative impacts of exponential change are hard to dismiss.

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